// Global Analysis Archive
The source argues Central Asia’s relative stability is best explained by an ‘illiberal peace’ model that prioritizes state-led coercion and elite bargains over participatory conflict resolution. While border settlements and regional integration have advanced, unresolved domestic grievances and rising water scarcity—especially linked to Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa canal—could become decisive stress tests.
A study cited by The Diplomat projects the Tian Shan—Central Asia’s “water tower”—could lose roughly one-third of its glaciers by 2040, with much larger mass losses possible under prevailing climate trajectories. The resulting shift toward earlier runoff and reduced late-summer flows raises risks for irrigation-dependent economies and complicates hydropower expansion and transboundary water governance.
The source describes a rapid expansion of largely unregulated artisanal gold mining in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province that is diverting rivers and discharging sediment and waste into the Kokcha and Sheva systems. These impacts may intensify local water scarcity and health concerns while creating downstream risks for Central Asian neighbors dependent on shared waters.
The source argues Central Asia’s relative stability is best explained by an ‘illiberal peace’ model that prioritizes state-led coercion and elite bargains over participatory conflict resolution. While border settlements and regional integration have advanced, unresolved domestic grievances and rising water scarcity—especially linked to Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa canal—could become decisive stress tests.
A study cited by The Diplomat projects the Tian Shan—Central Asia’s “water tower”—could lose roughly one-third of its glaciers by 2040, with much larger mass losses possible under prevailing climate trajectories. The resulting shift toward earlier runoff and reduced late-summer flows raises risks for irrigation-dependent economies and complicates hydropower expansion and transboundary water governance.
The source describes a rapid expansion of largely unregulated artisanal gold mining in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province that is diverting rivers and discharging sediment and waste into the Kokcha and Sheva systems. These impacts may intensify local water scarcity and health concerns while creating downstream risks for Central Asian neighbors dependent on shared waters.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-124 | Central Asia’s ‘Illiberal Peace’ Holds—But Water Stress and Local Buy-In Could Decide Its Durability | Central Asia | 2025-09-26 | 1 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-1337 | Tian Shan Glacier Retreat Accelerates: Central Asia’s Water, Food, and Hydropower Plans Face a 2040 Inflection Point | Central Asia | 2023-10-12 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-108 | Afghanistan’s Badakhshan Gold Rush Raises Regional Water-Security Stakes | Afghanistan | 2018-11-13 | 2 | ACCESS » |