Europe’s 2026 China Risk Outlook: Strategic Marginalization, Supply-Chain Chokepoints, and Rising Indo-Pacific Volatility
MERICS’ Top China Risks 2026 argues Europe faces heightened exposure to US–China bilateral bargaining, tougher competitive and regulatory conditions for European firms, and persistent dependencies in critical materials and tech inputs. The report also highlights elevated Indo-Pacific military activity and domestic Chinese socio-economic pressures as factors that could increase external assertiveness and disruption risk.