Morgan Stanley Sees China Housing Downcycle Extending Into 2026 as Inventory and Confidence Weigh
Morgan Stanley expects China’s housing slump to persist, forecasting new-home prices could fall another 2–3% in 2026 amid reactive, incremental policy support and weak buyer sentiment. Elevated inventories and sharper secondary-market declines suggest stabilisation may not arrive until 2H 2027 in higher-tier cities, with lower-tier markets taking longer.