// Global Analysis Archive
An ITIF analysis models that a hypothetical full U.S. decoupling from China’s semiconductor market could cut U.S. chipmakers’ initial-year sales by roughly $77 billion, with much of the displaced demand captured by South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, and Japan. The model also links revenue losses to an estimated ~$14 billion (about 24%) reduction in U.S. semiconductor R&D and significant direct and downstream job impacts.
An ITIF analysis models that a hypothetical full U.S.–China semiconductor decoupling could reduce U.S. chipmaker revenue by about $76.7B in the initial year, with much of the displaced sales captured by South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, and Japan. Using 2024 as the baseline, the report estimates U.S. semiconductor R&D could fall by roughly $14B (about 24%) and employment impacts could extend to tens of thousands of industry jobs and hundreds of thousands of downstream jobs.
An ITIF analysis models that a hypothetical full U.S. semiconductor decoupling from China could reduce U.S. chipmaker sales by roughly $77B in the initial year, with much of the displaced revenue captured by South Korean, EU, Taiwanese, Japanese, and mainland Chinese firms. Using 2024 as the baseline, the document estimates a corresponding decline in U.S. R&D spending (about $14B) and significant job spillovers across downstream industries.
Using 2024 market data, ITIF models that a full U.S. semiconductor decoupling from China could reduce U.S. chip sales by about $77B in the initial year and shift gains to South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, Japan, and mainland China. The report estimates a corresponding decline in U.S. semiconductor R&D spending of roughly $14B and significant job impacts across the chip sector and downstream industries.
An ITIF analysis models that broad U.S. semiconductor export controls leading to full commercial decoupling from China could cut U.S. chipmakers’ first-year revenues by roughly $77B and reduce R&D spending by about $14B versus the 2024 baseline. The report argues that displaced sales would likely be captured by South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, Japan, and mainland China, with knock-on employment effects across downstream industries.
ZEISS has started construction on a 50,000+ square meter Greater China headquarters campus in Shanghai’s Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone, combining R&D, management, customer experience, and high-end manufacturing. The move underscores China’s strategic importance to ZEISS and aims to deepen collaboration with local research institutions within China’s innovation ecosystem.
An ITIF analysis models that a hypothetical full U.S. decoupling from China’s semiconductor market could cut U.S. chipmakers’ initial-year sales by roughly $77 billion, with much of the displaced demand captured by South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, and Japan. The model also links revenue losses to an estimated ~$14 billion (about 24%) reduction in U.S. semiconductor R&D and significant direct and downstream job impacts.
An ITIF analysis models that a hypothetical full U.S.–China semiconductor decoupling could reduce U.S. chipmaker revenue by about $76.7B in the initial year, with much of the displaced sales captured by South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, and Japan. Using 2024 as the baseline, the report estimates U.S. semiconductor R&D could fall by roughly $14B (about 24%) and employment impacts could extend to tens of thousands of industry jobs and hundreds of thousands of downstream jobs.
An ITIF analysis models that a hypothetical full U.S. semiconductor decoupling from China could reduce U.S. chipmaker sales by roughly $77B in the initial year, with much of the displaced revenue captured by South Korean, EU, Taiwanese, Japanese, and mainland Chinese firms. Using 2024 as the baseline, the document estimates a corresponding decline in U.S. R&D spending (about $14B) and significant job spillovers across downstream industries.
Using 2024 market data, ITIF models that a full U.S. semiconductor decoupling from China could reduce U.S. chip sales by about $77B in the initial year and shift gains to South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, Japan, and mainland China. The report estimates a corresponding decline in U.S. semiconductor R&D spending of roughly $14B and significant job impacts across the chip sector and downstream industries.
An ITIF analysis models that broad U.S. semiconductor export controls leading to full commercial decoupling from China could cut U.S. chipmakers’ first-year revenues by roughly $77B and reduce R&D spending by about $14B versus the 2024 baseline. The report argues that displaced sales would likely be captured by South Korea, the EU, Taiwan, Japan, and mainland China, with knock-on employment effects across downstream industries.
ZEISS has started construction on a 50,000+ square meter Greater China headquarters campus in Shanghai’s Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone, combining R&D, management, customer experience, and high-end manufacturing. The move underscores China’s strategic importance to ZEISS and aims to deepen collaboration with local research institutions within China’s innovation ecosystem.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-828 | ITIF Model Warns Broad Chip Export Controls Could Shift $77B From U.S. Firms and Reduce R&D | Semiconductors | 2024-12-04 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-553 | ITIF Model Warns Broad Semiconductor Decoupling Could Shift $77B in U.S. Sales and Depress R&D | Semiconductors | 2024-12-01 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-763 | ITIF Model Warns Broad China Chip Decoupling Could Erode U.S. Revenue, R&D, and Jobs | Semiconductors | 2024-11-17 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-176 | ITIF Model Warns Broad China Chip Decoupling Could Cut U.S. R&D and Shift Market Share Abroad | Semiconductors | 2024-08-04 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-1302 | ITIF Model Warns Broad China Chip Decoupling Could Reduce U.S. R&D and Shift Market Share Abroad | Semiconductors | 2024-07-17 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-908 | ZEISS Breaks Ground on Integrated Greater China HQ and Manufacturing Campus in Shanghai FTZ | Foreign Investment | 2021-11-24 | 0 | ACCESS » |