// Global Analysis Archive
Polling cited by The Diplomat shows Thailand’s People’s Party extending its lead ahead of the February 8, 2026 general election, with Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut the top preferred prime minister in two national surveys. Despite improved procedural conditions compared with 2023, the report suggests coalition bargaining and establishment-aligned leverage could determine whether the polling front-runner can actually form a government.
According to the source, One Nation’s rapid polling rise is being driven by Coalition weakness, heightened immigration and security salience, and longer-term fragmentation of major-party support. The key uncertainty is whether the party can translate support into seats given persistent constraints in candidate vetting, organizational discipline, and policy depth.
Polling cited by The Diplomat shows Thailand’s People’s Party extending its lead ahead of the February 8, 2026 general election, with Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut the top preferred prime minister in two national surveys. Despite improved procedural conditions compared with 2023, the report suggests coalition bargaining and establishment-aligned leverage could determine whether the polling front-runner can actually form a government.
According to the source, One Nation’s rapid polling rise is being driven by Coalition weakness, heightened immigration and security salience, and longer-term fragmentation of major-party support. The key uncertainty is whether the party can translate support into seats given persistent constraints in candidate vetting, organizational discipline, and policy depth.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-548 | Thailand’s People’s Party Leads Polls, but Coalition Math May Decide the Next Government | Thailand | 2026-02-02 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-729 | Australia’s One Nation Tests Whether Polling Momentum Can Become Parliamentary Power | Australia | 2025-12-19 | 0 | ACCESS » |