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Intelligence Archive // China Watch

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Research Library

// Global Analysis Archive

DISPLAYING 1-12 OF 12 RECORDS — TAGGED "Political Risk"
PAGE 1 / 1
Philippines Feb 20, 2026

Fourth Impeachment Complaint Raises Stakes in Philippines’ Marcos–Duterte Power Struggle

The Diplomat reports that Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte faces a fourth impeachment complaint, filed shortly after she declared her intention to run for president in 2028. The filings, enabled by the expiration of a one-year procedural window, signal an intensifying Marcos–Duterte confrontation with potential implications for governance and political stability through the next election cycle.

Thailand Feb 17, 2026

Thailand’s Monarchy and the Digital ‘Visibility Trap’ After the 2026 Election

The source argues that ubiquitous digital transparency is undermining traditional monarchical legitimacy models, with Thailand facing acute exposure amid controversy surrounding the 2026 election. It suggests that perceived royal partisanship and intensified legal pressure against online speech may increase polarization and erode trust in key institutions.

Kyrgyzstan Feb 11, 2026

Kyrgyzstan’s Security Reset: Japarov Removes GKNB Chief Tashiev Amid Elite Power Rebalancing

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov dismissed longtime ally and GKNB chief Kamchybek Tashiev on February 10, alongside multiple senior deputies, signaling a major recalibration of the security apparatus. The move coincides with rising speculation about early presidential elections and raises the risk of elite fragmentation and short-term political instability.

Bangladesh Feb 07, 2026

Bangladesh’s 2026 Vote: Press Freedom as the Decisive Test of Democratic Transition

Bangladesh’s February 12, 2026 election is framed by the source as a pivotal test of democratic restoration after the 2024 political upheaval. Reported arrests, attacks on media outlets, and weak accountability—amid rising disinformation—could constrain election coverage and undermine confidence in the outcome.

Norway Feb 06, 2026

Epstein File Disclosures Trigger High-Level Scrutiny in Norway

Newly released US legal materials related to Jeffrey Epstein have intensified political and reputational pressure in Norway, including a police economic-crimes investigation involving former Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland and renewed scrutiny of elite networks. The disclosures also implicate contacts involving WEF head Borge Brende and highlight extensive email exchanges with Crown Princess Mette-Marit, increasing the likelihood of sustained domestic and international attention.

China Feb 02, 2026

China Sentences Former Justice Minister Tang Yijun to Life Term, Signaling Continued High-Level Enforcement

A Chinese court sentenced former justice minister Tang Yijun to life imprisonment, citing acceptance of payments totaling 137 million yuan in connection with assistance on IPOs, loans, and land matters, according to the source. The case reinforces signals of sustained enforcement intensity across senior civilian and security-linked institutions, with implications for regulatory timelines and counterparty risk.

Thailand Feb 02, 2026

Thailand’s People’s Party Leads Polls, but Coalition Math May Decide the Next Government

Polling cited by The Diplomat shows Thailand’s People’s Party extending its lead ahead of the February 8, 2026 general election, with Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut the top preferred prime minister in two national surveys. Despite improved procedural conditions compared with 2023, the report suggests coalition bargaining and establishment-aligned leverage could determine whether the polling front-runner can actually form a government.

China Jan 31, 2026

China Announces CCDI Investigation Into Sitting Emergency Management Minister Wang Xiangxi

China’s disciplinary watchdog has announced an investigation into Emergency Management Minister Wang Xiangxi for suspected “serious violations of discipline and law,” according to the source. The move underscores continued high-level enforcement activity across multiple strategic sectors, with potential near-term implications for administrative continuity and risk management.

Myanmar Jan 26, 2026

Myanmar’s Post-Coup Election: Limited Domestic Shift, Rising External Stakes

Analysts cited by the source assess Myanmar’s post-coup election is unlikely to change the underlying power structure, reduce conflict, or revive the economy. The vote may instead reshape external engagement dynamics, intensifying ASEAN dilemmas and deepening China-linked dependency risks.

Vietnam Jan 23, 2026

Vietnam Reappoints To Lam Through 2030: Reform Acceleration, Power Consolidation, and Growth Ambitions

Vietnam’s Communist Party unanimously reappointed To Lam as general secretary through 2030, reinforcing near-term political stability and signalling continued administrative overhaul. His push for double-digit growth and possible bid to also become president could increase decisiveness but heighten institutional, financial, and governance risks.

Cross-Straits Relations Jan 20, 2026

Beijing Courts Taiwan’s New Party to Reinforce One-China Baseline After 19th CPC Congress

Mainland officials used a New Party delegation visit to reaffirm the 1992 Consensus as the prerequisite for official cross-Straits engagement while criticizing the DPP for driving a communications freeze. The episode highlights Beijing’s dual strategy of political conditionality and incentive-led societal integration to shape Taiwan’s long-term choices.

Bangladesh Oct 04, 2025

Bangladesh’s July Charter Referendum: Constitutional Refounding Risks Ahead of the Feb. 12 Vote

The source argues that Bangladesh’s planned referendum on the July Charter—held alongside parliamentary elections—could function as a de facto constitutional refounding rather than a standard amendment process. It highlights Article 7B’s entrenchment provisions and process-neutrality concerns as key drivers of potential post-vote contestation and instability.

Philippines

Fourth Impeachment Complaint Raises Stakes in Philippines’ Marcos–Duterte Power Struggle

The Diplomat reports that Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte faces a fourth impeachment complaint, filed shortly after she declared her intention to run for president in 2028. The filings, enabled by the expiration of a one-year procedural window, signal an intensifying Marcos–Duterte confrontation with potential implications for governance and political stability through the next election cycle.

Feb 20, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
Thailand

Thailand’s Monarchy and the Digital ‘Visibility Trap’ After the 2026 Election

The source argues that ubiquitous digital transparency is undermining traditional monarchical legitimacy models, with Thailand facing acute exposure amid controversy surrounding the 2026 election. It suggests that perceived royal partisanship and intensified legal pressure against online speech may increase polarization and erode trust in key institutions.

Feb 17, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan’s Security Reset: Japarov Removes GKNB Chief Tashiev Amid Elite Power Rebalancing

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov dismissed longtime ally and GKNB chief Kamchybek Tashiev on February 10, alongside multiple senior deputies, signaling a major recalibration of the security apparatus. The move coincides with rising speculation about early presidential elections and raises the risk of elite fragmentation and short-term political instability.

Feb 11, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s 2026 Vote: Press Freedom as the Decisive Test of Democratic Transition

Bangladesh’s February 12, 2026 election is framed by the source as a pivotal test of democratic restoration after the 2024 political upheaval. Reported arrests, attacks on media outlets, and weak accountability—amid rising disinformation—could constrain election coverage and undermine confidence in the outcome.

Feb 07, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
Norway

Epstein File Disclosures Trigger High-Level Scrutiny in Norway

Newly released US legal materials related to Jeffrey Epstein have intensified political and reputational pressure in Norway, including a police economic-crimes investigation involving former Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland and renewed scrutiny of elite networks. The disclosures also implicate contacts involving WEF head Borge Brende and highlight extensive email exchanges with Crown Princess Mette-Marit, increasing the likelihood of sustained domestic and international attention.

Feb 06, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
China

China Sentences Former Justice Minister Tang Yijun to Life Term, Signaling Continued High-Level Enforcement

A Chinese court sentenced former justice minister Tang Yijun to life imprisonment, citing acceptance of payments totaling 137 million yuan in connection with assistance on IPOs, loans, and land matters, according to the source. The case reinforces signals of sustained enforcement intensity across senior civilian and security-linked institutions, with implications for regulatory timelines and counterparty risk.

Feb 02, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
Thailand

Thailand’s People’s Party Leads Polls, but Coalition Math May Decide the Next Government

Polling cited by The Diplomat shows Thailand’s People’s Party extending its lead ahead of the February 8, 2026 general election, with Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut the top preferred prime minister in two national surveys. Despite improved procedural conditions compared with 2023, the report suggests coalition bargaining and establishment-aligned leverage could determine whether the polling front-runner can actually form a government.

Feb 02, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
China

China Announces CCDI Investigation Into Sitting Emergency Management Minister Wang Xiangxi

China’s disciplinary watchdog has announced an investigation into Emergency Management Minister Wang Xiangxi for suspected “serious violations of discipline and law,” according to the source. The move underscores continued high-level enforcement activity across multiple strategic sectors, with potential near-term implications for administrative continuity and risk management.

Jan 31, 2026 0 views
ACCESS »
Myanmar

Myanmar’s Post-Coup Election: Limited Domestic Shift, Rising External Stakes

Analysts cited by the source assess Myanmar’s post-coup election is unlikely to change the underlying power structure, reduce conflict, or revive the economy. The vote may instead reshape external engagement dynamics, intensifying ASEAN dilemmas and deepening China-linked dependency risks.

Jan 26, 2026 1 views
ACCESS »
Vietnam

Vietnam Reappoints To Lam Through 2030: Reform Acceleration, Power Consolidation, and Growth Ambitions

Vietnam’s Communist Party unanimously reappointed To Lam as general secretary through 2030, reinforcing near-term political stability and signalling continued administrative overhaul. His push for double-digit growth and possible bid to also become president could increase decisiveness but heighten institutional, financial, and governance risks.

Jan 23, 2026 2 views
ACCESS »
Cross-Straits Relations

Beijing Courts Taiwan’s New Party to Reinforce One-China Baseline After 19th CPC Congress

Mainland officials used a New Party delegation visit to reaffirm the 1992 Consensus as the prerequisite for official cross-Straits engagement while criticizing the DPP for driving a communications freeze. The episode highlights Beijing’s dual strategy of political conditionality and incentive-led societal integration to shape Taiwan’s long-term choices.

Jan 20, 2026 2 views
ACCESS »
Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s July Charter Referendum: Constitutional Refounding Risks Ahead of the Feb. 12 Vote

The source argues that Bangladesh’s planned referendum on the July Charter—held alongside parliamentary elections—could function as a de facto constitutional refounding rather than a standard amendment process. It highlights Article 7B’s entrenchment provisions and process-neutrality concerns as key drivers of potential post-vote contestation and instability.

Oct 04, 2025 0 views
ACCESS »
ID Title Category Date Views
RPT-1448 Fourth Impeachment Complaint Raises Stakes in Philippines’ Marcos–Duterte Power Struggle Philippines 2026-02-20 0 ACCESS »
RPT-1261 Thailand’s Monarchy and the Digital ‘Visibility Trap’ After the 2026 Election Thailand 2026-02-17 0 ACCESS »
RPT-984 Kyrgyzstan’s Security Reset: Japarov Removes GKNB Chief Tashiev Amid Elite Power Rebalancing Kyrgyzstan 2026-02-11 0 ACCESS »
RPT-805 Bangladesh’s 2026 Vote: Press Freedom as the Decisive Test of Democratic Transition Bangladesh 2026-02-07 0 ACCESS »
RPT-745 Epstein File Disclosures Trigger High-Level Scrutiny in Norway Norway 2026-02-06 0 ACCESS »
RPT-577 China Sentences Former Justice Minister Tang Yijun to Life Term, Signaling Continued High-Level Enforcement China 2026-02-02 0 ACCESS »
RPT-548 Thailand’s People’s Party Leads Polls, but Coalition Math May Decide the Next Government Thailand 2026-02-02 0 ACCESS »
RPT-445 China Announces CCDI Investigation Into Sitting Emergency Management Minister Wang Xiangxi China 2026-01-31 0 ACCESS »
RPT-213 Myanmar’s Post-Coup Election: Limited Domestic Shift, Rising External Stakes Myanmar 2026-01-26 1 ACCESS »
RPT-93 Vietnam Reappoints To Lam Through 2030: Reform Acceleration, Power Consolidation, and Growth Ambitions Vietnam 2026-01-23 2 ACCESS »
RPT-51 Beijing Courts Taiwan’s New Party to Reinforce One-China Baseline After 19th CPC Congress Cross-Straits Relations 2026-01-20 2 ACCESS »
RPT-868 Bangladesh’s July Charter Referendum: Constitutional Refounding Risks Ahead of the Feb. 12 Vote Bangladesh 2025-10-04 0 ACCESS »
Page 1 of 1 • 12 total reports