// Global Analysis Archive
Source reporting describes the PLA’s December 29–30, 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” drills as the largest near Taiwan in over three years, emphasizing blockade-style operations, extensive air activity, and live-fire elements. The document suggests a broader pattern of iterative exercises since 2022, complemented by persistent patrol activity and capability experimentation, while raising questions about blockade sustainment under external interference.
Source material indicates China expanded the scale and proximity of PLA exercises around Taiwan in December 2025, emphasizing blockade practice, high-tempo air operations, and amphibious rapid assault elements. Reported January 2026 activity—including leadership-targeting training narratives and a possible Taiwanese airspace violation over Pratas—raises incident and miscalculation risks.
Source reporting describes late-2025 PLA exercises near Taiwan as unusually large and close-in, emphasizing blockade simulation, joint operations, and precision-strike rehearsal. Continued activity into January 2026 suggests sustained pressure, though the source notes uncertainty about long-duration sustainment under external interference.
The source describes late-December 2025 PLA exercises near Taiwan as the largest in over three years, featuring multi-zone maritime activity consistent with blockade rehearsal and high-tempo air operations. It also highlights uncertainty about the PLA’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade under contested conditions, alongside Taiwan’s subsequent counter-drills and U.S. calls for restraint.
Two days of PLA drills on Dec. 29–30 operated closer to Taiwan’s coast and were assessed by analysts in the source as the largest since 2022, with activity consistent with rehearsing blockade-relevant tasks. The episode also highlighted immediate coercive effects through civilian route disruption while leaving open questions about the PLA’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade under contested conditions.
Source reporting describes late-December 2025 PLA drills near Taiwan as a large-scale demonstration of blockade-relevant capabilities, including stand-off fires and high sortie rates with reported civil aviation disruption. The activity fits a broader post-2022 pattern of normalized encirclement operations, while questions remain about sustainability under logistics constraints and potential external interference.
Source reporting describes the PLA’s December 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” drills as a large-scale blockade-oriented exercise package near Taiwan, followed by January 2026 indications of expanded strike and raid training scenarios. Taiwan’s counter-drills and U.S. criticism highlight a tightening action–reaction cycle with elevated risks of miscalculation and episodic coercion short of war.
Xi Jinping’s late-2025 New Year messaging, paired with large-scale drills, suggests intensified political and military signaling on Taiwan and a narrower tolerance for perceived separatism. The address also projects economic confidence and advances global governance positioning as China pivots toward the 15th Five-Year Plan.
The source describes China’s December 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” exercise as a major Taiwan-focused drill emphasizing blockade mechanics, maritime coordination, and precision-strike integration. While capability development is advancing toward 2027 goals, analysts cited in the document question the PLA’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade under contested conditions, making a 2026 blockade or invasion attempt less likely than continued coercive operations.
The source reports that the PRC conducted the Justice Mission 2025 exercise on December 29–30, rehearsing blockade enforcement and counter-intervention elements while using the event to increase political and psychological pressure on Taiwan. It also highlights expanded China Coast Guard activity around Taiwan’s outlying islands, Taiwan’s internal legislative confrontation, and reporting on potential AI-enabled influence operations ahead of Taiwan’s 2026 and 2028 elections.
Xi Jinping’s 31 December 2025 New Year address frames Taiwan reunification as an unstoppable historical trend while highlighting the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the launch of the 15th. The speech pairs sovereignty messaging with claims of economic and national-strength gains and positions China as a proponent of global governance reform, while avoiding direct discussion of domestic economic headwinds.
According to the source, a bipartisan group of 37 U.S. lawmakers urged Taiwan’s legislature to approve a robust multi-year special defense budget aligned with President Lai’s proposed package. The report links Taiwan’s domestic budget gridlock to deterrence credibility amid continued PLA drills and persistent U.S. concerns over weapons-delivery backlogs.
Source reporting describes the PLA’s December 29–30, 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” drills as the largest near Taiwan in over three years, emphasizing blockade-style operations, extensive air activity, and live-fire elements. The document suggests a broader pattern of iterative exercises since 2022, complemented by persistent patrol activity and capability experimentation, while raising questions about blockade sustainment under external interference.
Source material indicates China expanded the scale and proximity of PLA exercises around Taiwan in December 2025, emphasizing blockade practice, high-tempo air operations, and amphibious rapid assault elements. Reported January 2026 activity—including leadership-targeting training narratives and a possible Taiwanese airspace violation over Pratas—raises incident and miscalculation risks.
Source reporting describes late-2025 PLA exercises near Taiwan as unusually large and close-in, emphasizing blockade simulation, joint operations, and precision-strike rehearsal. Continued activity into January 2026 suggests sustained pressure, though the source notes uncertainty about long-duration sustainment under external interference.
The source describes late-December 2025 PLA exercises near Taiwan as the largest in over three years, featuring multi-zone maritime activity consistent with blockade rehearsal and high-tempo air operations. It also highlights uncertainty about the PLA’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade under contested conditions, alongside Taiwan’s subsequent counter-drills and U.S. calls for restraint.
Two days of PLA drills on Dec. 29–30 operated closer to Taiwan’s coast and were assessed by analysts in the source as the largest since 2022, with activity consistent with rehearsing blockade-relevant tasks. The episode also highlighted immediate coercive effects through civilian route disruption while leaving open questions about the PLA’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade under contested conditions.
Source reporting describes late-December 2025 PLA drills near Taiwan as a large-scale demonstration of blockade-relevant capabilities, including stand-off fires and high sortie rates with reported civil aviation disruption. The activity fits a broader post-2022 pattern of normalized encirclement operations, while questions remain about sustainability under logistics constraints and potential external interference.
Source reporting describes the PLA’s December 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” drills as a large-scale blockade-oriented exercise package near Taiwan, followed by January 2026 indications of expanded strike and raid training scenarios. Taiwan’s counter-drills and U.S. criticism highlight a tightening action–reaction cycle with elevated risks of miscalculation and episodic coercion short of war.
Xi Jinping’s late-2025 New Year messaging, paired with large-scale drills, suggests intensified political and military signaling on Taiwan and a narrower tolerance for perceived separatism. The address also projects economic confidence and advances global governance positioning as China pivots toward the 15th Five-Year Plan.
The source describes China’s December 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” exercise as a major Taiwan-focused drill emphasizing blockade mechanics, maritime coordination, and precision-strike integration. While capability development is advancing toward 2027 goals, analysts cited in the document question the PLA’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade under contested conditions, making a 2026 blockade or invasion attempt less likely than continued coercive operations.
The source reports that the PRC conducted the Justice Mission 2025 exercise on December 29–30, rehearsing blockade enforcement and counter-intervention elements while using the event to increase political and psychological pressure on Taiwan. It also highlights expanded China Coast Guard activity around Taiwan’s outlying islands, Taiwan’s internal legislative confrontation, and reporting on potential AI-enabled influence operations ahead of Taiwan’s 2026 and 2028 elections.
Xi Jinping’s 31 December 2025 New Year address frames Taiwan reunification as an unstoppable historical trend while highlighting the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the launch of the 15th. The speech pairs sovereignty messaging with claims of economic and national-strength gains and positions China as a proponent of global governance reform, while avoiding direct discussion of domestic economic headwinds.
According to the source, a bipartisan group of 37 U.S. lawmakers urged Taiwan’s legislature to approve a robust multi-year special defense budget aligned with President Lai’s proposed package. The report links Taiwan’s domestic budget gridlock to deterrence credibility amid continued PLA drills and persistent U.S. concerns over weapons-delivery backlogs.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-1160 | Justice Mission 2025: PLA Blockade Simulation Near Taiwan Signals Evolving Coercive Playbook | Taiwan Strait | 2026-02-15 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-1035 | PLA Raises Pressure on Taiwan with Blockade Rehearsals and Boundary-Testing Operations | Taiwan Strait | 2026-02-12 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-816 | PLA Blockade-Rehearsal Drills Near Taiwan Signal Higher-Tempo Coercion Into 2026 | Taiwan Strait | 2026-02-07 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-527 | Justice Mission 2025: PLA Blockade-Rehearsal Signals Intensify Around Taiwan | Taiwan Strait | 2026-02-02 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-512 | PLA ‘Justice Mission 2025’ Drills Near Taiwan Signal Blockade Rehearsal and Deterrence Messaging | Taiwan Strait | 2026-02-01 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-466 | PLA ‘Justice Mission 2025’ Signals Intensified Blockade-Rehearsal Posture Around Taiwan | Taiwan Strait | 2026-02-01 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-368 | Justice Mission 2025: PLA Blockade Rehearsal Signals a Higher-Tempo Taiwan Strait Posture | Taiwan Strait | 2026-01-30 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-118 | Xi’s Year-End Messaging Signals Harder Taiwan Line and Expanded Governance Ambitions | China | 2025-11-20 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-1329 | PLA Taiwan Drills Signal Blockade Readiness and Routinized Pressure into 2026 | Taiwan Strait | 2025-08-20 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-366 | PRC Justice Mission 2025 Blockade Drill Signals Intensifying Multi-Domain Pressure on Taiwan | Taiwan Strait | 2025-08-20 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-500 | Xi’s 2026 New Year Address: Taiwan Inevitability Narrative and Five-Year Plan Transition | China | 2025-07-05 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-1125 | U.S. Lawmakers Press Taiwan to Break Budget Deadlock as PLA Pressure Intensifies | Taiwan | 2024-10-01 | 0 | ACCESS » |