2026 Taiwan Strait Outlook: No-Notice PLA Drills Tighten Pressure Without Signalling Imminent War
The source assesses that late-December 2025 no-notice PLA encirclement drills around Taiwan pushed operations closer to the island and signalled an ability to escalate rapidly. It suggests 2026 is more likely to see sustained coercive normalisation and threshold-testing than immediate large-scale conflict, amid Beijing’s heavy domestic political and economic agenda.