China’s Late-2025 Growth Mix: Export Strength Masks Domestic Weakness as Trade Reorients Toward Europe
MERICS data show China’s confidence and equity markets improving in Q4 2025, while GDP growth slows and domestic demand remains constrained by property-sector weakness and cautious households. Exports contributed a large share of 2025 growth and are increasingly redirected toward ASEAN, Europe, and Africa, raising the likelihood of stronger trade-policy pushback in third markets.