Deterrence and Escalation Dominance in the Taiwan Strait: Lessons from the 1996 Crisis
A Belfer Center-hosted International Security article argues that U.S. deterrence in the Taiwan Strait remains robust absent a Taiwan declaration of independence, grounded in U.S. warfighting capability and escalation dominance. It cautions that post-1996 policy assumptions and insufficiently rigorous deterrence analysis can heighten misperception and escalation risks.