// Global Analysis Archive
A Defense Priorities Q&A argues that a Chinese operation against Taiwan in the next few years should be treated as a relatively high-probability scenario, enabled by proximity, rapid force generation, and multi-domain strike capacity. The source highlights Taiwan’s blockade vulnerability and questions whether current defense priorities and reserve readiness are sufficient absent assumptions of U.S. intervention.
Taiwan’s parliament will discuss a stalled US$40 billion special defence budget on Mar 6 after opposition objections delayed review and prompted concern from 37 US lawmakers. The outcome will signal Taiwan’s ability to translate threat perceptions into funded capabilities while managing domestic political constraints and alliance expectations.
Taiwan has conducted multiple shallow-water submerged tests of its indigenous submarine prototype Hai Kun, signalling an effort to recover from a missed trial schedule. According to the source, successful sea trials are central to unlocking frozen funding tied to a broader plan to build seven additional submarines.
The source describes large-scale PLA exercises on Dec. 29–30, 2025 simulating a multi-domain blockade of Taiwan, including close-in maritime activity and rocket impacts between 12 and 24 nautical miles offshore. It suggests 2025 saw increasingly normalized PLA presence, indicating a shift from episodic signaling toward operational rehearsal with elevated escalation and miscalculation risks.
Source reporting describes large-scale PLA exercises on 29–30 December 2025 simulating a Taiwan blockade, energy interdiction, and follow-on strike and assault options. The prominent role of the China Coast Guard suggests a deliberate push to operationalize “gray zone” quarantine-style enforcement alongside joint-force escalation pathways.
A Defense Priorities Q&A argues that a Chinese operation against Taiwan in the next few years should be treated as a relatively high-probability scenario, enabled by proximity, rapid force generation, and multi-domain strike capacity. The source highlights Taiwan’s blockade vulnerability and questions whether current defense priorities and reserve readiness are sufficient absent assumptions of U.S. intervention.
Taiwan’s parliament will discuss a stalled US$40 billion special defence budget on Mar 6 after opposition objections delayed review and prompted concern from 37 US lawmakers. The outcome will signal Taiwan’s ability to translate threat perceptions into funded capabilities while managing domestic political constraints and alliance expectations.
Taiwan has conducted multiple shallow-water submerged tests of its indigenous submarine prototype Hai Kun, signalling an effort to recover from a missed trial schedule. According to the source, successful sea trials are central to unlocking frozen funding tied to a broader plan to build seven additional submarines.
The source describes large-scale PLA exercises on Dec. 29–30, 2025 simulating a multi-domain blockade of Taiwan, including close-in maritime activity and rocket impacts between 12 and 24 nautical miles offshore. It suggests 2025 saw increasingly normalized PLA presence, indicating a shift from episodic signaling toward operational rehearsal with elevated escalation and miscalculation risks.
Source reporting describes large-scale PLA exercises on 29–30 December 2025 simulating a Taiwan blockade, energy interdiction, and follow-on strike and assault options. The prominent role of the China Coast Guard suggests a deliberate push to operationalize “gray zone” quarantine-style enforcement alongside joint-force escalation pathways.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-1599 | Taiwan Contingency: Proximity, Logistics, and the PLA’s Short-Warning Advantage | Taiwan | 2026-02-24 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-1579 | Taiwan Moves to Unblock US$40B Defence Budget Amid US Pressure and Parliamentary Deadlock | Taiwan | 2026-02-24 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-919 | Taiwan Accelerates Hai Kun Submerged Tests as Budget Freeze Hinges on Sea-Trial Milestones | Taiwan | 2026-02-10 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-2086 | PLA ‘Justice Mission 2025’ Signals Intensified Blockade-Rehearsal Pattern Around Taiwan | PLA | 2025-12-15 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-3438 | Justice Mission 2025: PLA-CCG Blockade Rehearsals Tighten Pressure Around Taiwan | PLA | 2025-07-10 | 0 | ACCESS » |