Space Deterrence and Crisis Stability: How PLA Space Modernization Could Reshape U.S.-China Strategic Risk
An LLNL analysis argues that China’s expanding military space and counterspace capabilities, combined with PLA deterrence concepts, could heighten crisis instability by increasing incentives for preemption and misinterpretation. At the same time, China’s growing dependence on space may introduce stabilizing pressures, making signaling and escalation management central to future space competition.