Second Thomas Shoal: How Philippine Resolve Shaped the July 2024 Modus Vivendi
The source argues the July 2024 Provisional Understanding on Second Thomas Shoal emerged because coercive pressure failed to change Philippine resupply behavior at acceptable cost, not because transparency or diplomacy alone deterred escalation. It cautions that the apparent stabilization may not transfer to other features lacking a persistent Philippine presence and could unravel if the arrangement is later revised.